Proclaimational Information
unemployment sucks............
Jobs are creating a "pool" of possible future employees if someone leaves (general motors, state of nevada,etc.). Same ole job posting or none from job bores. Congress wants to punish the poor to pay for Business Tax Cuts. A dismal election cycle this year. a new recession already here. Lack of leadership in Government while those who created and played in this financial crisis go free. Nobody pays for this except the people. Even if Government Officials take a pay cut, they have passive income that they can always bank on. I keep hearing "let the markets work themselves out" - they can't. They created this mess and, without Government Intervention World-wide, it'll all come crumbling down. The Global Economy is fragile as it is. The markets isn't the solution - their greed (and all those who prospered from it) caused it!
Oscar 01/23/2012
I lost my Oscar today. My other baby boy had to be put to sleep. He got really sick over the weekend and wouldn't eat or drink. The Vet this morning found out that he was Diabetic. I would need to inject water into him at home since he was dehydrated for a few months at $140 a month. Then the diabetic medicine at $175 per 5 months. Then the regular vet visits and blood work at $269 a visit (probable twice a month at first).
The problem is that I am on unemployment and I am barely making it. I had to let my Oscar go. His sister, Mattie, looked all around for him then looked at me like, "What did you do with him? Where is he?". They were very close and she is the only one left. I must try my best to be there for her.
It's my fault. I should have tried harder to save money, get a car sooner, and took them to the vets sooner. I got so busy with day-to-day stuff that I should have spent more time with them.
Two cats within a month period. I am ready for a nervous breakdown. I don't like the idea of Mattie being alone while I'm working long hours (if a job comes up). When Mattie goes, I will be all alone and I am so afraid of losing her! I am so scared!
Kyle 12/19/2011
I miss my Kyle. He was such a Beautiful Cat and he had such an amazing child-like quality with him when he played with a toy. I had to put him to sleep today. I got his favorite toy and Christmas Stocking on my wall above my bed. Losing an animal is like losing a child. The house is empty without him. He left too early in life but he was very sick and I am very broke. I am on unemployment and I could not take care of a sick cat while I go on job interviews. I did not have the $2000 to make him well - if they could even save him. a large part of the problem was that he was really fat and I worked a lot or had problems to solved and didn't pay enough attention till I realized there was a problem. Since my divorce 6 years ago, it has been one thing after another and the cats get ignored because so much pressing issues are on you. I hope to learn from my mistakes from the loss of my Friend. I wish I could go back and changed things but I have a problem of not seeing a problem till its right in my face.
I miss you, Kyle. Rest in Peace, my little one.
Best as can be expected...
Unemployed, doing job searches. jobs are drying up and its the same old jobs being listed over and over again. I need to start learning stuff including typing but my chronic fatigue has really been acting up. My mind is clear but my body has absolutely no energy. My motivation and drive is non-existent. I ordered some adrenal gland extracts and I sure hope it works.
Yes, I have insomnia. Yes, I have depression. One job popped up for a computer tech assistance. Requirements was knowing how to repair computers, knowledge of microsoft software (XP, Windows 7, Office 2010, workstation virus protection, remote access support), and network skills (VPN, RDP, VNC, Citrix). This is only a summary of the full 2-page requirements for the job. They wanted someone with a BS degree and 5+ years experience and have their own car to travel 50% of the time to various locations (and gas is going UP). This is for Goodwill Thrift Store. The pay? $15 a hour part-time.
Welcome to Nevada.
Pruning.....
cleaning up all the loose ends that we all inherited from a long To-Do list that can never be achieved while working/relationships/commitments/responsibilities takes center-stage to our lives. If I can get my life down to "zero", it will be interesting to see what is really there.
How do you want your dog biscuit?
Many in their careers and field aspire to become known and famous. This is more true in the Entertainment Industry. Regardless if it's music or acting or modeling, it's all the same. For some, they work very long years to get known and they may or may not achieve famous. This "known" becomes like a "cult-following". Others instantly become famous. And they constantly are busy trying to achieve this? But do we need to be known or/and famous? It's a part of our culture to constantly better ourselves, constantly go-go-go, constantly trying to achieve our goals - but for what? We NEVER achieve this except a few. Instead of buying their books, watching their videos, and admiring from afar, we should grow up and realize it ain't working. And all the sooner before we become disillusioned with life.
Do we always have to be busy doing "something"? Is it no surprise that when we find ourselves doing nothing, we're totally depressed? And that we only find our "self-worth" when we're busy doing something - aspiring goals, having fun, meaningless activities like reckless spending, etc - but totally feeling worthless and life feeling meaningless doing those "down" periods? Have we been programmed to act like this from our jobs, our entertainment, our careers? And what's outside of the "box", especially since no one has gone outside? (many claim but for making money from us). Because our self-worth is so attached to this fast-paced lifestyle, we cannot break the cycle. "It would ruin my resume. my reputation is always on the line. My career is at stake." So we have to make connections, networking, e-mails checked when sick or on vacation, build-for-success, working long-hours and weekends in vain, etc. Jobs demand more - especially our time, family time, and life. With the loss of available jobs in today's markets, even our very soul. We have to pledge the Allegiance to Corporate Governance above family, beliefs, and country. In the end, you'll end up sick - sick to death of the life you're living. Because it was all for corporate profits at the top. For you? A pat on the head, a dog-biscuit, and a "Now get back to work!" I've been there; done that.
R.I.P.
House cleaning
being on the Internet all day, job searching, is boring. But so is removing viruses off one's computer from visiting Facebook so I shouldn't complain.
The e-pads are gone. a project that didn't work due to not being able to develop the right switch to trigger the pads like a midi drum pad. I am working on down-sizing (not only my lifestyle but also my projects and consumerism) because I believe this economic depression is long-lasting, not temporary. Also due to the fact that this is man-made, a huge pile of debt that cannot go away, consistent bubbles forming that threatens to pop the whole thing to kingdom-come, and long-term high unemployment. Things might pick up towards the holiday season till retailers realize that no one is buying cause customers are hanging on to what little they have left. - just like their Corporate counter-part. Then will come the mass layoffs affecting 2012. Without any kind of job security, consumerism dies right with it.
So I have to work on which projects to scrap and which to keep. If I have to move, I want to be on the go within one day at the most. That's a big "IF" but one that could be possible with today's economic disaster. I bought a new computer with 6 cores as the Pentium 4 is getting old. although power consumption is lower, I have yet to see any speed. It has a 1 TB 7200rpm 32mb cache 6/gb per second drive and 8GB of new ram yet it seems lacking. Software has yet to be written to use any cores beyond two efficiently is part of the problem. I'm hoping Linux Tango Studio 1.1 will do well with it. I guess I'll have to research more on it. My Pentium 4 would take a while to boot but be solid when finally up. But it would drag on most cpu-intensive stuff (like video editing). With operating system and software changing to 64 bits, I feel it was time.
Unemployment link and updates
I have an Unemployment Blog since being recently laid off. It's at
http://unemploymentfromdayone.blogspot.com/2011/07/july-8.html.
I also have been working on the dual neck guitars that I started a year ago (or more) and has been dormant due to work and stress. Job Searching takes up a lot of time as well.
University of Nevada Press
I am being laid off from my job as Warehouse Manager after 12 years there. Nevada has the highest unemployment in the nation and being over 50 makes one obsolete in the job market. It's a very frustrated time as age really does play a role against you. I can't do all the heavy warehouse lifting as when I was younger. I am taking notes and will be posting on a separate blog all the juicy details of the warehouse closing down.
Trying to get my bearings...
I didn't know it was so long since I last wrote. My job at the University of Nevada Press ends soon after almost 12 years. There's alot yet to say but I can say this: UNR has abandon me and I have therefore abandon it. All they want to do is kick me out the door like a discarded item. I have bad knees and a bad right from working there and have kept the Press going by doing all the warehouse/shipping/receiving duties and no one cares. There's more I can say but this will do for now.
as things stand...
Insomnia has settled in over my forth-coming job lost. The University of Nevada Press is letting go of two classified people yet they hired on an unnecessary Faculty person. So much for "Ohhhh! Theses cuts are so baaaaad!" yeah, sure. It'll probably cost close to $400,000 to close the warehouse and taxpayers are going to have to pay for it as the department doesn't have that kind of money. Well, they DO have money but that's internally. Business has been slow but, if they would get out there and market the books "in person" instead of behind a computer, that could change. Doing all these "special events" aren't working. When you take in consideration the cost of travel & food expenses and all you get in return is one or two small book sale, you know the business model doesn't work. One is going on right now locally and the pictures sent by the marketing manager shows an event that looks like it's dead. two people in one picture and one person talking to an Acquisition Editor in the other picture. But the University doesn't operate from any kind of Business model cause "it's a Institution, stupid!" mentality reigns. I was thinking of writing articles about my 11 years at the University. I know there would probably be alot of interest, especially to taxpayers tired of footing the bills.
Modem to Router
have AT&T modem and Linksys router that never played good together till now. I always had for two years a computer with two nics in it between them for home network. It was to be used for network analysis. I finally got both working using Mac Cloning and changing the router's IP from 192.168.1.1 to 192.168.2.1 (conflicts with AT&T modem). It Works! Then I had to do "netstat -a" to find the IP address of my print server.
My only problem now is getting Ubuntu to work. It's such a beast at times. I upgraded my 8.04 to 10.04 and it crashed so I had to do a fresh install. It's almost like before but not quite.
Dual Guitars
Making my own dual-neck electric guitar - sorta like a chapman/warr guitar except lo-fi. perhaps even very lo-fi. But, after a few months, I put some more time into it. more sawing and drilling to come. Eventually the pickups won't be sitting next to the creamer anymore in the cupboards. Still, still, still working on that next improv CD.
semi-retired...for now...
as I look forward, that's how I feel. I'm not retired nor can I retire but I am semi-retire as life is more relaxed. I look at free improvisation and have no desire to play. computer-geek-stuff is heading the same way due to burn out from other people.
There is the loss of job ahead so I am enjoying my time till the whole thing collapse. This may just include the rest of the country as well.
Do a background check before you buy another movie
1)"Wolverine: Origins": The movie was well-done, Gambit was great, but a flat-based plot that didn't follow the X-Men trilogy.
2) Hugh Jackman glorified on the "behind-the-scenes" on the making of the movie. "He really put his ALL into this movie". Well, doing an internet search, I can see why: His production company he created (with his wife and another person)was involed (so that brought in some millions) and he got paid $20 Million for making the movie. Who wouldn't put their ALL into it?!! It's like the new Star Trek movie where they did the "behind-the-scenes" and glorify J.J. Adams. Granted - these guys got talent but that's as far as it goes. Ever seen The Muppets Christmas movie? at the end, Kermet gives miss piggy a mink that goes around saying. "O Miss Piggy, I watch all your films, I'm your biggest fan, I worship the ground you walk on!" yeah, all this idolatry stuff really is pathetic.
3) Hugh Jackman: "I don't set goals". Really?? Go here to: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Hugh_Jackman#Future_projects and look at his future projects. These things just don't fall out of the sky and land in your lap. You have to work for them.
4) Hugh Jackman involvement with the U.N. on poverty concerns me as the U.N. is anti-U.S. Constitution. The goal has always been to tax U.S. Citizens for world poverty and that violates taxation without representation. I therefore destroyed the DVD and threw it in the trash. Next time, I'll have to do a background check before I buy another movie.
Of Hopes and Dreams...
It occured to me that I have left this place unintentionally. I have found out verbally on May 4th that my job (plus co-worker) will soon end. There is alot of stress and emotions running thru me right now. I am trying (rather late) in saving a rainy day fund as the University where I work keeps refering to me finding outside work. I am in the State system and I intend to get back in. But it does look like the University system doesn't want me to have unemployment.
I have been studying for a Network exam but it's been slow going. people have also been interrupting me over their computers and I have to quit doing that. CompTia is getting lifetime certifications only this year. Since I'll be unemployed, it'll be the last exam for awhile. I have 2 bad knees, bad right hip, and will be 52 soon. I have been involved with warehousing since 18 and I am getting too old for that. I'm getting worried living in the number 1 worst state with the highest unemployment (and, no, I don't have the ability to move to another state - I don't even own a car).
GTD
Today has at least gone well. I actually accomplished some of the stuff I wanted to do but at a slower pace. The bad news is that work has given the verbal "pink slip" to me and a co-worker. We don't know the last day yet. I hope to start recording the material from cassettes for the new CD tomorrow if my newly-created Ubuntu 10.04 is properly working (if not, I still have 9.10). I have found some material that I wrote back in 2004 on my audio computer and I will spend time looking for more as it gives a glimpse of where I was at that time (when I released my last offical new-material CD "Midlife"). I have been busy studying for a Computer Network Exam and it's going to be hard. I need to get caught up on reading material - there's so much to read! I am building either a dual-neck or two-necks-as-one guitar. I hope it produces good material. The epads are still on the shelf as I haven't gotten around to them yet. I found out that Chip handy passed away in 2001 so I would like to put out material of his on CD's.
GTD
I have been trying to get a GTD system working that fits me instead of me trying to fit some mold. I can say things are getting done but only because I realized that productivity is a verb, meaning "action". It may well be adjectives and adverbs but this mental idea has helped the last two weeks. I have a simple list for the work week and a daily planner for the weekend. although its a fragmented failed system, things are getting done.
Been needing some sort of a piece of furniture to house my DBX Stereo EQ, Shure microphone mixer, and cassette system (to transfer my tapes to CD) for the last two years. I ended up today getting a TV Cart from walmart and reconstructed it as it was a little too long. messed up as the bottom became the top and the top became the bottom. went to harbor freight and picked up a small floor dolly and screw it to the bottom of that thing. Man, the Lord does Great Work! There's no way I could have pulled this off; it's too perfect. Everything fits just right and now I can EQ sermons and music and record right into the computer. just too cool!
Ubuntu 9.10 is working on my audio computer with AVlinux PAE kernel. I doubt I'll upgrade to 10.4 on this machine right now.
I've watch two DVDs from Voice of the Martyrs titled "Underground Reality:Vietnam" and "Underground Reality:Colombia" and I HIGHLY recommend them! I know I'll be watching them over and over!
Budget Cuts
It is looking like my job will be cut within a year. I have been implementing cost-saving measures, like using a watts meter and going with 15/25 watts light bulbs. The low energy type has mercury in them and, if they break, you're to call hasmat. I've been able to save $21.25 on my power bill this month! jobs are zero here in Reno, NV. one place, Bonanza Produce, would always have jobs available due to a large in/out of people. Now they won't be hiring for at least a year. a co-worker just came back from Hawaii - he said it's pretty dead there. I do not have the desire nor resources to move. I've been here since 1976 so I know the area well and seen it grow from a small pup to what it is now. so the stress level has been a bit high. the education and state bubbles are popping. from here, union bubbles. commerical real estate is happening. next drought. It's all downhill, folks!
Lib-hell
been trying to create a scaled down version of ubuntu for audio/video work. After 3 tries with some success and failures, I deliberately crashed it by upgrading ubuntu hardy to debian squeeze. I was burned out, knew I would have to start over, so I figured "why not?".
on another note, unemployment could be happening so I've been making plans. no jobs are available at a unemployment rate of 13% and climbing so I will concentrate on prayer, God's Word, and education in IT (computers). The news is all bad. Even with just one day without pay, it's hard. whether it's another pay cut or laid-off, the news is all bad. some people are going to lose their home.
Shil (March 10, 1993-Janurary 4, 2010)
Shil "polarbear" Jackson passed away at 8:30am due to a congested heart and fluids in his lungs. He was an important member of the family and will be greatly missed. He is survived by the Dad Michael, his two sisters Emmicah and Rosalene, all three of Reno, Nevada, and by his Mom Tracy Sunman, of Michigan.
64Studio 3.0
Ubuntu 8.04 64Studio Combo
The goal of this is to get a stand-alone, solid audio production system.
1) Install command-line of Ubuntu 8.04 LT (prefer bare-bone system). Installed midnight commander after reboot (personal choice). (in terminal and in order) sudo aptitude -purge cron,at, amora-utilities, amora, fuse-utilities, ubuntu-standard, popularity-contest, reiser-progs, resink, wpa-supplicant, ed, ufw (firewall). added readahead, apt-move, check-install, and prelink.
2) install gnome-core, xfont-base, xorg. install xorg, xfont-base, gnome-core, gnome-media, gnome-audio, gnome-volume-manager, gnome-system-tools, update-manager, alsa* (alsa with a "star" (shift+8) after it), gdm, synaptic, firefox, gdebi. then sudo apt-get upgrade.
(modified from http://groups.google.com/group/microclient/browse_thread/thread/1f5940606f2819e1/2c12875f56ebf0db?lnk=gst&q=hardy#2c12875f56ebf0db about installing a small Ubuntu on the Microclient)
3) blacklist the Intel on-board audio. lspci | grep -i audio. blacklist intel on-board audio at \etc\modprobe.d\blacklist and add to list snd_intel8x0 and snd_intel8x0m. install real-time kernel 2.6.24-24-rt. reboot. install nvidia-glx-new for dual video card. had to take my xorg.conf from another ubuntu partition and overwrite old one to make it work. reboot.
4) Boot to desktop. error will popup with problem with "fast user switch" applet and I deleted it. using synaptic: install nvidia-glx-new for dual video card. had to take my xorg.conf from another ubuntu partition and overwrite old one to make it work. reboot.
5) using synaptic: install archive manager, rar, zip. install jackd. install envy24 for soundcard (M-Audio 1010LT). install gnome-alsa-mixer, Jack-Audio-Connection-Kit. install hydrogen, qjackctrl, jackbeat, jackeq, jackrack, jacktools, jammin. install ardour. install mhwave. install rezound. install gdebi. install auduacity. install cd & dvd burning apps and others through synaptic - for example: cd paranoid, cdrdao, creox, flac, gnome-baker, joshner, traverso. run jack. You have to start jack to see all the input and outputs for audio. terminal > sudo alsamixer > make sure to turn settings up. DAC controls left channel and DAC1 controls right channel.
From here, I followed the instructions from the "Linux Mint 5 to 64Studio" instructions:
http://forums.linuxmint.com/viewtopic.php?f=42&p=151717#p151717
6)install wine & wineasio. use 64studio beta3 and ubuntu studio 9.04 CD is to be used for upgrading individual packages ONLY (Don't upgrade the whole system!). install nvidia-glx-new for dual video card. had to take my xorg.conf from another ubuntu partition and overwrite old one to make it work. added 64studio respository: deb http://athardystudio.co.za/ pool & deb http://athardystudio.co.za/ hardy to apt-get conf file. sudo apt-get update.
added 64studio respository: deb http://athardystudio.co.za/ hardy. comment "security" repositories as this is not meant for internet when done. did apt-get update & upgrade.
7) Install k3b (burning software), DVD +RW tools, avidemux, open movie editor, kdelive, lives, kino, dedede, ubuntu studio audio plugins, fst, dssi-vst.
8) install Cinelerra
repositories:
http://akirad.cinelerra.org akirad-hardy main
went to etc/security/limits.conf > add in @audio - rtpio 99, @audio - nice -10, @audio - memlock unlimited. reboot.
NEXT: To make an image of the partition and transfer to another computer
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
I have been busy on several projects. one is several CDs improvisor Adam Bohman in England. The second is finalizing the documentation that I used to make my hybrid ubuntu-64studio os. still working on the transfering to another computer. I still have to post to forum/blog. some improvs and circuit-bending trys as well.
New Post
Finally, things begin to gell. I have a modify linux for audio/video and have started a bible study routine. so much has happen in the last 4 months. I was mention on an audio broadcast of an interview with Adam Bohman back in May. I don't know what to think of it. Am I an improvisor? In heart and mind, yes. In practice, no. I've been spending more time in prayer and prayer for the persecuted christian church and the Word of God. But I did do some interesting improvs tonight. It's been about a year.
The Résumé of Jesus Christ
The Résumé of Jesus Christ
Address: Ephesians 1:20
Phone: Romans 10:13
Website: The Bible. Keywords: Christ, Lord, Savior and Jesus
________________________________________________________________
Hello. My name is Jesus -The Christ. Many call me Lord! I've sent you my
resume because I'm seeking the top management position in your heart.
Please consider my accomplishments as set forth in my resume.
Qualifications
* I founded the earth and established the heavens, (See Proverbs 3:19)
* I formed man from the dust of the ground, (See Genesis 2:7)
* I breathed into man the breath of life, (See Genesis 2:7)
* I redeemed man from the curse of the law, (See Galatians 3:13)
* The blessings of the Abrahamic Covenant comes upon your life through me (See Galatians 3:14)
Occupational Background
* I've only had one employer, (See Luke 2:49).
* I've never been tardy, absent, disobedient, slothful or disrespectful.
* My employer has nothing but rave reviews for me, (See Matthew 3:15-17)
Skills Work Experiences
* Some of my skills and work experiences include: empowering the poor
to be poor no more, healing the brokenhearted, setting the captives free,
healing the sick, restoring sight to the blind and setting at liberty them
that are bruised (See Luke 4:18).
* I am a Wonderful Counselor, (See Isaiah 9:6). People who listen to me shall dwell safely and shall not fear evil (See Proverbs 1:33).
* Most importantly, I have the authority, ability and power to cleanse you of your sins (See I John 1:7-9)
Educational Background
* I encompass the entire breadth and length of knowledge, wisdom and understanding (See Proverbs 2:6).
* In me are hid all of the treasures of wisdom and knowledge (See Colossians 2:3).
* My Word is so powerful; it has been described as being a lamp unto your feet and a lamp unto your path (See Psalms 119:105).
* I can even tell you all of the secrets of your heart (See Psalms
44:21).
Major Accomplishments
* I was an active participant in the greatest Summit Meeting of all times (See Genesis 1:26).
* I laid down my life so that you may live (See II Corinthians 5:15).
* I defeated the archenemy of God and mankind and made a show of them openly (See Colossians 2:15).
* I've miraculously fed the poor, healed the sick, and raised the dead!
* There are many more major accomplishments, too many to mention here.
You can read them on my website, which is located at: www dot - the BIBLE.
You don't need an Internet connection or computer to access my website.
References
* Believers and followers worldwide will testify to my divine healings, salvation, deliverance, miracles, restoration and supernatural guidance.
In Summation
Now that you've read my resume, I'm confident that I'm the only candidate uniquely qualified to fill this vital position in your heart. In summation, I will properly direct your paths, (See Proverbs 3:5-6), and lead you into everlasting life, (See John 6:47). When can I start? Time is of the essence (See Hebrews 3:15).
Headwind 2
again, it looks like things are picking up. I do have moments of sluggishness but advance I will. my home server with ubuntu linux will hopefully be done in 2 weeks. The outside wasp nest is gone as well as a second can of raid to wipe the area down with. I had to rearrange the front room furniture but that is not a final thing. using 3 green-striped index cards with sticky backs, I use each one as 6-10am, 10-4pm, and 4-10pm and write stuff on them. so far, so good. eventually, I'll make it to music making.
Headwind
seems I have found a system where I am getting things done. I tend to get sluggish mid-day on the weekends but pick back up early afternoon. today was mostly a bad day emotionally but turned itself around about 5pm. It feels good to be productive but the projects are not quick ones. The current one has taken two weekends and next weekend will hopefully be part 3/3. I've decided to find a GTD system that works for me using index cards with sticky backs. work's system and home's system are completely different (and should be). I need to rearrange the front room but don't know how. That's the next big project.
The weather has been thunder storms and Hot due to Humidity. It's actually cool outside but can't get the cool air inside. I hope to start doing audio stuff. It's on the list but don't know when. I don't do hour-by-hour GTD - it won't work for me. I just do the 5 top important items and get them done. I have a pool of stuff that needs to get done and separate them according to importance and one-time event, rotating event (like cleaning), quick event, and long-time event.
you call me...
You call me eternal, then do not seek me.
You call me fair, then do not love me.
You call me gracious, then do not trust me.
You call me just, then do not fear me.
You call me life, then do not choose me.
You call me light, then do not see me.
You call me Lord, then do not respect me.
You call me Master, then do not obey me.
You call me merciful, then do not thank me.
You call me mighty, then do not honor me.
You call me noble, then do not serve me.
You call me rich, then do not ask me.
You call me Savior, then do not praise me.
You call me shepherd, then do not follow me.
You call me Way, then do not walk with me.
You call me wise, then do not heed me.
You call me Son of God, then do not worship me.
When I sentence you, then do not blame me.
One day it just fell off a cliff....
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/5/5/727606/-one-day-it-just-fell-off-a-cliff
One day it just fell off a cliff....(debt and the US$) by taonow
Tue May 05, 2009 at 06:08:19 AM PDT
Page 12 news that will soon be page 1.
It is no secret that the US government has been running up the credit card of late. So far there do not seem to have been any adverse consequences from the run up, but that does not mean that there will not be any, ever. On the contrary, a crisis is slowly building, and it is one that will erupt suddenly.
This is a story of debt and the dollar.
Before I start, a quick note: US Government debt consists of two forms. Form 1 is borrowed from the public (this debt is held by private citizens, hedge funds, mutual funds, foreign governments etc) and Form 2 is borrowed from trusts funds, like Social Security. At the end of April 2009, Debt held by the public was $6,930,824,942,975, debt held by Social Security etc was $4,307,767,198,983 , for a total debt outstanding of $11,238,592,141,958.
Here is the problem:
In the last 12 months (May 1, 2008 to April 30, 2009) the US government has borrowed $1.7 trillion in net new borrowings from the public. This is equal to 1/3 of the entire debt that was held by the public as at May 1, 2008. That's right, in 12 months the government has borrowed 25% of the total amount it has ever borrowed from the public in 230+ years!
The Good: On the good side is the fact that the US government has been able to borrow $1.7 trillion from the market in one year AND still have interest rates at record lows AND still have the dollar strong. On paper you would think that this would be impossible. Luckily however, for now at least, the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, and the dollar is the "go to" currency when times get scary and people want to keep their money safe. This "generosity" on the part of the market has allowed the government to run a huge budget deficit with little or no consequences to date.
The Bad: The money that has been lent to the US government (all $1.7 trillion of it) has to have come from somewhere. It has come primarily from investors wanting safety and from countries with trade surpluses looking for a place to stash their dollars (think China, Japan, Opec, etc.) and from the Federal Reserve which has been buying up debt (and printing money in the process). So far so good. In fact with rates so low one could be forgiven for thinking that there is still substantial excess demand out there for US government debt. But is that really the case?
Maybe so...but what about the future?
Not only does the US government need to hope that investors want to keep buying US debt, but it also has to keep finding a steady stream of new buyers willing to buy the continuing flood of new debt that it needs to issue to fund the deficit. Let's look at potential sources of this "stream" of cash.
1. Trade surplus countries. While China, Japan and OPEC nations have been big buyers of US debt in the recent past, this may not continue. The recession has hit trade exporters hard and many have seen a dramatic drop in their trade surpluses. No trade surplus, no need for US dollars. China in particular seems to have had other ideas of late. It has actively been buying commodities (copper, etc.) as a way of buying tangible assets with their reserves, as opposed to more US debt.
2. Safe Haven investors. Stock market crashes, bank failures, and Madoff scams are just a few of the reasons that people have decided that they want to keep their money safe, in US Treasuries (after all the US can not go bankrupt as it owns a printing press). So scared have people been that at times they were getting a negative rate of return on their Treasuries, and still bought them. But with fear ebbing, the peak inflow of "scared money" has likely passed. It is unlikely that this can be a major source of new purchases of Treasuries. In fact, some of this safe haven money may actually start to depart in search of higher returns.
3. Social Security. In the past, the government could count on borrowing "easy" money from Social Security every year. This was usually in the range of $250-300 billion per year. BUT...with a recession and more people retiring and fewer people working, instead of "providing" money, Social Security has started to "take" money. Since January 1, 2009, Intragovernmental holdings (primarily Social Security) have been reduced by $25 billion. This is a fundamental change, especially as the government is trying to borrow more and more. Its former biggest single lender has now started to ask for its money back. Talk about bad timing. [Update: As pointed out in the comments, this section as it reads is not technically correct. Instead of "Social Security" it should read "Intragovernmental Holdings". While Social Security makes up 56% of Intragovernmental Holdings, it appears that it is other components of Intragovernmental Holdings that are accounting for the changes noted. So the changes are real, but the source of the changes is not the Social Security Trust Fund as implied above].
4. Savers. As the recession bites, more people are saving. The saving rate is once again positive, which is a very good thing after the debt bubble that we have been through. American savers (individuals and corporations) are actually the biggest new potential pool of capital available to the government as potential purchasers of Treasuries.
5. The Fed. The Fed is the buyer of last resort. If no one else shows up to buy, or if they want too high a return, the Fed can step in and buy. But this is not without impact. When the Fed buys Treasuries it is effectively printing money. Carried to an extreme, it would eventually lead to significant inflation.
The Ugly: This is what could happen if the demand for Treasuries falls short of requirements. It is not pretty, and demonstrates clearly what happens when debt gets out of control.
We know the US government will need to issue a lot of new debt in the next two years at least. What happens if the buyers don't show up?
1. If buyers start to be scarce, we will start to see yields (interest rates) on Treasuries start to rise.
2. But the Fed wants to keep rates low to stimulate the economy. It can of course step into the market and buy up the extra Treasuries. If it buys enough it can push rates back down (but this would mean that it would have printed a lot of new money).
3. Existing holders of Treasuries, seeing that the Fed needs to step in to buy Treasuries, may decide that maybe they want to put their money elsewhere, so they start to sell. This again pushes up rates, and likely hits the US dollar.
4. Once the ball starts rolling, it becomes very hard to stop. Either the Fed has to allow rates to rise, or it really starts to print money. This likely would start a run on the dollar.
5. What is especially worrisome is that the government these last few years has been borrowing more and more short term money (30 day to 3 year) versus a lot of 30 year in the past. While rates are lower at the short end there is a much bigger risk should there be a "shock". A lot of debt now has to be rolled over regularly. Any shock could easily create a crisis. (Basically borrowing short has made the system more fragile).
What's Next?:
Interest Rates: In the last couple of weeks we have seen rates on 10 year and 30 year bonds starting to move up above where the Fed would like to see them. The 10 year is now above 3% and the 30 year above 4%. This is an early sign that the market is having trouble digesting the supply coming from Washington.
US Dollar: The US dollar index (the US dollar valued against a basket of currencies), has been drifting lower and is on the edge of breaking lower technically.
Conclusion: Pressure from new debt continues to build. The market is starting to show some signs of strain. You should not be surprised to wake up one morning to see that a new crisis has arisen.
Disclaimer: This diary is not meant to argue for or against fiscal stimulus. It is meant to be an objective view of the market as I see it, like it or not.
Stable
Since my vacation in April, I have found myself emotional stable, compared with the inner depression/fatigue of the past. I still have a hard time being productive between 10am-4pm but I have lately been getting past due projects (up to several years) completed. I have been settling down, spending only the mornings shopping for necessities and staying home afterward. no longer following the "urge" to be on the "GO!". I get some praying done as well as some reading. My asthma has been kicking in as well as my panic attacks, though I do not know why. I know that other people have been hit with allergy problems. The weather has gone from cold to hot. Pollen in the air. My back/hip/knee has been causing great problems and the cracking does concern me but it hasn't taken away my peace (for now). I have been doing very heavy lifting at work. hot baths and exercise helps alot. I don't seem so anxious like before - it has come down 50%. perhaps it is due to spending time with Jesus over things in my life.
